Free Astronomy Magazine July-August 2024 ARABIC VERSION

damage. A large financial, time, and manpower commitment would be required to preventively rebuild the electricity grids and communica- tions systems so that they could fully withstand a new Carrington Event, but governments around the world have shown little-to-no interest in doing so. The unpredictability of CMEs is in- evitably reflected in estimates of their frequency, estimates which are characterized by a large margin of uncertainty. Studies of carbon-14 residues trapped in tree rings high- light Carrington-type events in 994 AD, 774 AD, and 660 BC, with the first and third significantly more powerful than the Carrington Event, which left no obvious radioisotope traces of that type. Searches even farther back in time, based on radioactive particles trapped in the ice of Greenland, report a possible very mighty geomagnetic storm dat- ing back 9,200 years. This apparent scarcity of events should not be misconstrued with inac- tivity, as randomness plays a non-negligible role; in the last week of July 2012, a mass of coronal plasma compa- rable to that of the Car- rington Event crossed the Earth’s orbit just 9 days ahead of when the Earth was to be at that very position. In order to have an overall picture of solar ﺗﻮﺛﻴـﻖ ﻓﻮﺗــﻮﻏﺮاﻓﻲ ﻧــﺎدرﺟــﺪ اً ﻟﺘﻄــﻮ ر اﻟﺘــﻮﻫﺞ اﻟﺸﻤﺴــﻲ - اﻟﻀــﻮء اﻷﺑــ ﺾ - ــﺔ ﻓــﻲ ﻇﻬــﺮﻓــﻲﻣﻨﻄﻘــﺔ ﻧﺸــﻄﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺎ واﻟــﺬ 31 ﻣــﺎرس 2001 ﻋﻠــﻰ اﻟــﺮﻏﻢ ﻣــﻦ اﻟﺴــﻠﻮك اﻟﻐﺮ ــﺐ ﻓــﻲ اﻧ ﻌــﺎث اﻹﺷﻌﺎع ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺎت اﻟﻌﺎﻟ ﺔ ﻓﻠ ﺲﻫﻨﺎكﺷﻚ ﻓﻲ أﻧﻬﺎ ﺎﻧﺖﻇﺎﻫﺮة ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻬﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻌﺾ اﻟ أ ﻠﻎ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻨﻮاﺣﻲ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ اﻟ ر ﺘ ﺘﻮنﻐﺎر ﺸﺎرد ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ أﻧﻬﺎ أﻗﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻃًﺎ ﻜﺜ . ] Antonio Finazzi, Chiuduno, Bergamo, Italy − adapted from l’Astronomia [ اﻟﺸـــﻔﻖ ﻓــــﻲ اﻷﻓــــﻖ اﻟﻘﻄــــ ﺗــــﻢ اﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃــــﮫ ﻳـﻮم 10 ــﺎﻟﻘﺮ ﻣــﻦ ﻣـﺎﻳﻮ، ﻣﻨــﺎرة ﺳـﺎﻧﺖ ﻣــﺎري ﻓﻲﺧﻠﻴـﺞ وا ﺘﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ إﻧﺠﻠ ا . وﺳﻮف ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ اﻷﻣﺮ ﻗﺪراً ﻛﺒ اً ﻣﻦ اﻻﻟﺘـﺰام ا ﺎﱄ واﻟﻮﻗﺖ واﻟﻘﻮى اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠـﺔ ﻹﻋـﺎدة ﺑﻨـﺎء ﺷﺒﻜﺎت اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎء وأﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻت ﺑﺸـﻜﻞ وﻗﺎﺋﻲ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻳﺘﺴﻨﻰ ﻟﻬﺎ اﻟﺼﻤﻮ د ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﺔ ﺣﺪث ﻐ ﻛـﺎرﻳﻨ ﺘﻮن ﺟﺪﻳـﺪ وﻟﻜـﻦ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺎت ﰲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ أﻧﺤﺎء اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺒﺪ أي اﻫﺘﻤﺎم ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﺎم ﺑﻬﺬا . اﻫﺘﻤﺎم ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﺎم ﺑﻬﺬ . ا إن ﻋـﺪم اﻟﻘـﺪرة ﻋـﲆ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎت اﻟﻜﺘﻠﻴﺔ اﻹﻛﻠﻴ ﻠﻴﺔ ﺗـﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺣﺘﻤﺎً ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮات ﺗﻜﺮارﻫـﺎ وﻫـﻲ ﺗﻘـﺪﻳﺮات ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﻬﺎﻣﺶ ﻛﺒ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪم اﻟﻴﻘ . ﺗﺴـﻠﻂ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ أﺟﺮﻳﺖ ﻋﲆ ﺑﻘﺎﻳﺎ اﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮن 14 ا ﺤﺒﻮﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺣﻠﻘﺎت اﻷﺷـﺠﺎر اﻟﻀـﻮء ﻋـﲆ ـــــــ أﺣـﺪاث ﻣـﻦ ﻧـﻮع ﻛـﺎرﻳﻨﻐﺘﻮن ﰲ 994 ، وم 774 و م 660 ﻗﺒﻞ ا ﻴﻼد ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻷﺣـﺪاث اﻷوﱃ واﻟﺜﺎ ﻟﺜ ـﺔ أﻗــﻮى ﺑﻜﺜ ـ ﻣــﻦ ﺣﺎدﺛــﺔ ﻛﺎرﻳﻨﻐﺘﻮن اﻟﺬي ﻟﻢ ﻳـﱰك أي آﺛـﺎر وا ﺿـﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎﺋﺮ ا ﺸﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻨﻮع . ﺗﺸ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﺒﺤﺚ إﱃ أﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ ﰲ اﻟـﺰﻣﻦ اﺳـﺘﻨﺎد إﱃ اً ـــ اﺣﺘﻤـﺎل ﺣـﺪوث ﻋﺎﺻـﻔﺔ ﻣﻐﻨﻄﻴﺴـﻴﺔ اﻟ ﺠﺴﻴﻤ ت ا ﺸﻌﺔ ا ﺤﺎﴏة ﺮﻳﻨﻼﻧﺪ ﻏ ﰲ ﺟﻠﻴﺪ إﱃ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟ ﻴﺔ ﺣــﺪوث ﻧﺸــﺎط ﻋﺎﺻــﻔﺔ ﺟﻴﻮﻣﻐﻨﺎﻃﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻗﻮ ﻳـﺔ ﺟـﺪ اً ﻳﻌﻮد ﺗﺎرﻳﺨﻬﺎ إﱃ 9200 .ﻋﺎم ﻻ ﻳﻨﺒﻐـﻲ أن ﻳﺴـﺎء ﺗﻔﺴـ ﻫــﺬه اﻟﻨ ــﺪرة اﻟ ﻮاﺿــﺤﺔ ﻟﻸﺣﺪاث ﻋـﲆ أﻧﻬـﺎ ﻋﺪﻳﻤـﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط إذ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ اﻟﻌﺸـﻮاﺋﻴﺔ اً دور ﻻ ﻳﺴ ـﺘﻬﺎن ﺑ ـﻪ ﻔ ـﻲ ﻓ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻷﺧـ ﻣـﻦ ﻳﻮﻟﻴـﻮ 2012 ﻋــﱪت ﻛﺘﻠــﺔ ﻣــﻦ اﻟﺒﻼزﻣﺎ اﻹﻛﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ا ﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺪث ﻛﺎرﻳﻨﻐﺘﻮن ﻣﺪار اﻷر ض ﻗﺒﻞ 9 أﻳﺎم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ا ﻮﻋـﺪ اﻟـﺬي ﻛـﺎن ﻣـﻦ ا ﻘﺮر أن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻴـﻪ اﻟﻜـﺮة اﻷرﺿﻴﺔ ﰲ ذﻟﻚ ا ﻮﻗـﻊ ﻣـﻦ ﻣﺪارﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺬات . وﻣـﻦ أﺟـﻞ اﻟﺤﺼـﻮل ﻋ ـﲆ - ﻳﻮﻟﻴﻮ ﺃﻏﺴﻄﺲ 2 0 2 4 ] Owen Humphreys/ Associated Press [