Free Astronomy Magazine July-August 2024 ARABIC VERSION

ting their supplies of necessities and moving around in general. Water could no longer be pumped upwards against the pull of grav- ity, leaving those living “uphill” of their local water sources without. Electric cars could not be recharged until normal- ity returned. Uninter- ruptible power supplies and generators intended for life-saving systems would have limited au- tonomy. Only the accu- mulators of photovoltaic systems, ironically fueled by the same Sun that was the origin of the global disaster, would be able to guarantee energy for essential activities. A 2013 study by British insurance giant Lloyd’s of London estimated that power outages following a Car- rington-type event could lead to up to $2.6 trillion in lost revenue for the North American energy industry alone. The study asserts that conti- nental-scale blackouts would last a very long time because such an event could simultaneously damage multiple very high-voltage trans- formers that are not easy to replace. Returning to the state of affairs that existed prior to a possible Carring- ton Event would certainly require years, during which our civilization would certainly be able to display its Understanding the mechanisms un- derlying the triggering of CMEs and predicting their magnitudes is a pri- ority for solar physicists. But even with the current fleet of spacecraft dedicated to observing the Sun, all that scientists can really do now is provide, at best, a few days’ warn- ing of the arrival of a flow of solar plasma. We can only minimize the worst. We have no way of knowing when an event comparable to Car- rington’s might happen again. Fur- thermore, we do not know how often these events occurred before 1859. Before electrical networks and devices existed, those phenom- ena attracted attention only due to the appearance of auroras. 13 اﻟﴬورﻳﺎت واﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎ م وﻟﻢ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻣﻦ ا ﻤﻜﻦ ﺿﺦ ا ﻴ ﺎه إﱃ أﻋﲆ ﺿﺪ اﻟ ﻗﻮة ﺠﺎذﺑﻴـﺔ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻳـﱰك أوﻟﺌـﻚ اﻟـﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻌﻴﺸـﻮن أﻋـ" " ﲆ ﻣ ﺼﺎدر ا ﻴﺎه ا ﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺪوﻧﻬﺎ وﻻ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ إﻋﺎدة ﺷﺤﻦ اﻟﺴﻴﺎرات اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻌﻮد اﻟﺤﻴﺎة إﱃ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬﺎ وﺳﺘﻜﻮن إﻣﺪادات اﻟﻄﺎﻗـﺔ ﻏـ ا ﻨﻘﻄﻌﺔ وا ﻮﻟﺪات ا ﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ إﻧﻘـﺎذ اﻟﺤﻴﺎة ذات اﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺤﺪودة . اﺳـﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺤـﺪودة وﻟ ـﻦ ﻳــﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﺳـﻮى ﻣﺠﻤﻌﺎت اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻜﻬﺮوﺿﻮﺋﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻐﺬﻳﻬﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺸﻤﺲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ ﻣﺼـﺪر اﻟﻜﺎرﺛـﺔ اﻟﻌﺎ ﻴ ـﺔ ﻣــﻦ ﺿــﻤﺎن اﻟﻄﺎﻗــﺔ ﻟﻸﻧﺸــﻄﺔ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ . ﺗﺸ ﺗﻘـﺪﻳﺮات در اﺳـﺔ أﺟﺮﺗﻬـﺎ ﴍﻛﺔ اﻟﺘﺄﻣ اﻟﱪﻳﻄﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻼﻗﺔ ﻟﻮﻳـﺪز ﰲ ﻟﻨــﺪن ﻋــﺎم 2013 إﱃ أن اﻧﻘﻄــﺎع اﻟﺘﻴــﺎر اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑــﺎﺋﻲ ﰲ أﻋﻘــﺎب ﺣــﺪث ﻣــﻦ ﻧــﻮع ﻛﺎرﻳﻨﻐﺘﻮن ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳـﺆدي إﱃ ﺧﺴـﺎرة ﻣـﺎ ﻳﺼﻞ إﱃ ٢.٦ ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴـﻮن دوﻻر ﻣـﻦ اﻹﻳـﺮادات ﻛﺎرﻳﻨﻐﺘﻮن ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳـﺆدي إﱃ ﺧﺴـﺎرة ﻣـﺎ ﻳﺼﻞ إﱃ 2.6 ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴـﻮن دوﻻر ﻣـﻦ اﻹﻳـﺮادات ﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﰲ أﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ اﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ وﺣﺪﻫﺎ . ﺗﺆﻛﺪ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ أن اﻧﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺘﻴـﺎر اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑـﺎﺋﻲ ﻋﲆ ﻧﻄﺎق ﻗﺎري ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻟﻔﱰة ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺟـﺪ اً ﻷن ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬا اﻟﺤﺪث ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳ ﺆدي ﰲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ إﱃ إﺗﻼف ا ﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤـﻮﻻت اﻟﺠﻬـﺪ اﻟﻌﺎﱄ ﺟﺪ اً واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻬﻞ اﺳﺘﺒﺪاﻟﻬﺎ . ﻣﻦ ا ﺆﻛﺪ أن اﻟﻌ ﻮدة إﱃ اﻟﻮﺿﻊ اﻟﺬي ﻛﺎن ﻗﺎﺋﻤـ ﺎً ﻗﺒـﻞ ﺣﺎدﺛـﺔ ﻛﺎرﻳﻨﻐﺘﻮن ﺳﻴﺘﻄ ﻠﺐ ﺳـﻨﻮات ﺣﻴــﺚ ﺳــﺘﻜﻮن ﺣﻀــﺎرﺗﻨﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻗـﺎدرة ﻋـﲆ إﻇﻬـﺎر أﺳﻮأ ﺣﺎﻻﺗﻬﺎ . ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ أي ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻌﺮﻓـﺔ ﻣﺘ ﻰ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺤﺪث ﺣـﺪث ﻣﺸـﺎﺑﻪ ﻟﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ﻐ ﻛﺎرﻳﻨ ﺘﻮن ﻣﺮة أﺧﺮى ﻋﻼوة ﻋﲆ ذﻟﻚ ﻻ ﻧﻌـﺮف ﻋـﺪد ا ﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪﺛﺖ ﻓﻴﻬـﺎ ﻫـﺬه اﻷﺣﺪاث ﻗ ﺒﻞ ﻋﺎم 1859 . ﻗﺒﻞ و ﺟﻮد اﻟﺸﺒﻜﺎت واﻷﺟﻬﺰة اﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴـﺔ ﻟـﻢ ﺗﺠـﺬب ﺗﻠـﻚ اﻟﻈﻮاﻫﺮ اﻻﻫﺘﻤـﺎم إﻻ ﺑﺴـﺒﺐ ﻇﻬﻮر اﻟﺸﻔﻖ اﻟﻘﻄﺒﻲ . إن ﻓﻬﻢ اﻵﻟﻴﺎت اﻟـﻜﺎﻣﻨﺔ وراء إﻃــﻼق ا ﻻﻧﺒﻌـﺎث اﻹﻛﻠـﻴﲇ اﻟﻜـﺘﲇ واﻟﺘﻨﺒـﺆ ﺑﺄﺣﺠﺎﻣـﻪ ﻳﻤﺜــﻞ أوﻟﻮﻳــﺔ ﻟﻌﻠﻤــﺎء اﻟﻔﻴﺰﻳـﺎء اﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ وﻟﻜﻦ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻣـﻊ وﺟـﻮد اﻷﺳـﻄﻮل اﻟﺤﺎﱄ ﻣـﻦ ا ﺮﻛﺒـﺎت اﻟﻔﻀـﺎﺋﻴﺔ ا ﺨﺼﺼـﺔ ﺮاﻗﺒﺔ اﻟﺸﻤﺲ ﻓﺈن ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﺎء ﻓﻌﻠﻪ اﻵن ﰲ أﺣﺴﻦ اﻷﺣﻮال ﻫﻮ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﻢ ﺗﺤﺬﻳﺮ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺑﻀﻌﺔ أﻳﺎم ﻣﻦ وﺻـﻮل ﺗـﺪﻓ ﻖ اﻟﺒﻼزﻣـﺎ اﻟﺸ ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻠﻴﻞ اﻟﴬ ـﺗﻘ ﻣﻦ ر ﻓﻘﻂ - ﻳﻮﻟﻴﻮ ﺃﻏﺴﻄﺲ 2 0 2 4 ﻫﻨـــــﺎ ـﻟـــــ ﻋﻠـــــﻰ ا ـــــﺎ ﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻟـــــﺘﻘﻂﻣﺮﺻـــــﺪ د ﻨﺎﻣﻴ اﻟﺸـــــﻤﺲ اﻟﺘــــــﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﻨﺎﺳــــــﺎ ﻫــــــﺬﻩ اﻟﺼــــــﻮرة ﻓــــــﻮق اﻟ ﻨﻔﺴـﺠ ﺔ ﻟﻠﺘـﻮﻫﺞ ) X5.8 ( اﻧﻔﺠـﺮﻓــﻲ اﻟـﺬ 10 ﻣـﺎﻳﻮ 2024 ﻓــﻲ ﻧﻔــﺲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘــﺔ اﻟﻨﺸــﻄﺔ ﻣﺜــــــــﻞ اﻟﺘﻮﻫﺠــــــــﺎت اﻟﺴــــــــﺎ ﻘﺔ ] . NASA/SDO [ أدﻧــــــﺎﻩ اﻟﻤﻨــــــﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻨﺸــــــﻄﺔ ﻓــــــﻲ 9 ﻣــــــﺎﻳﻮ ﻣـــــــﻊ ﻟﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻘﺮﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﻫﺞ اﻟﺸﺪ ﺪ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ اﻟﻴﻮم . [NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams /helioviewer.org/Graphic compiled in Canva by Daisy Dobrijevic]